diff --git a/apps/studio/components/layouts/AppLayout/NoticeBanner.tsx b/apps/studio/components/layouts/AppLayout/NoticeBanner.tsx
index 3b9cd6c2c1d..6b6c61a501a 100644
--- a/apps/studio/components/layouts/AppLayout/NoticeBanner.tsx
+++ b/apps/studio/components/layouts/AppLayout/NoticeBanner.tsx
@@ -1,18 +1,18 @@
-import { useRouter } from 'next/router'
-
-import { useLocalStorageQuery } from '@/hooks/misc/useLocalStorage'
 import { LOCAL_STORAGE_KEYS } from 'common'
-import { HeaderBanner } from 'components/interfaces/Organization/HeaderBanner'
-import { InlineLink } from 'components/ui/InlineLink'
+import { useRouter } from 'next/router'
 import { TimestampInfo } from 'ui-patterns'
 
+import { HeaderBanner } from '@/components/interfaces/Organization/HeaderBanner'
+import { InlineLink } from '@/components/ui/InlineLink'
+import { useLocalStorageQuery } from '@/hooks/misc/useLocalStorage'
+
 /**
  * Used to display urgent notices that apply for all users, such as maintenance windows.
  */
 export const NoticeBanner = () => {
   const router = useRouter()
 
-  const [bannerAcknowledged, setBannerAcknowledge, { isSuccess }] = useLocalStorageQuery(
+  const [bannerAcknowledged, setBannerAcknowledged, { isSuccess }] = useLocalStorageQuery(
     LOCAL_STORAGE_KEYS.MAINTENANCE_WINDOW_BANNER,
     false
   )
@@ -38,7 +38,7 @@ export const NoticeBanner = () => {
           </InlineLink>
         </>
       }
-      onDismiss={() => setBannerAcknowledge(true)}
+      onDismiss={() => setBannerAcknowledged(true)}
     />
   )
 }
diff --git a/apps/studio/components/layouts/AppLayout/StatusPageBanner.tsx b/apps/studio/components/layouts/AppLayout/StatusPageBanner.tsx
index 1254546603c..f43caee3d6c 100644
--- a/apps/studio/components/layouts/AppLayout/StatusPageBanner.tsx
+++ b/apps/studio/components/layouts/AppLayout/StatusPageBanner.tsx
@@ -1,7 +1,6 @@
-import { useFlag } from 'common'
-
 import { HeaderBanner } from '@/components/interfaces/Organization/HeaderBanner'
 import { InlineLink } from '@/components/ui/InlineLink'
+import { useStatusPageBannerVisibility } from './useStatusPageBannerVisibility'
 
 const BANNER_DESCRIPTION = (
   <>
@@ -13,18 +12,9 @@ const BANNER_DESCRIPTION = (
  * Used to display ongoing incidents
  */
 export const StatusPageBanner = () => {
-  const showIncidentBanner =
-    useFlag('ongoingIncident') || process.env.NEXT_PUBLIC_ONGOING_INCIDENT === 'true'
+  const banner = useStatusPageBannerVisibility()
 
-  if (showIncidentBanner) {
-    return (
-      <HeaderBanner
-        variant="warning"
-        title="We are investigating a technical issue"
-        description={BANNER_DESCRIPTION}
-      />
-    )
-  }
+  if (!banner) return null
 
-  return null
+  return <HeaderBanner variant="warning" title={banner.title} description={BANNER_DESCRIPTION} />
 }
diff --git a/apps/studio/components/layouts/AppLayout/StatusPageBanner.utils.test.ts b/apps/studio/components/layouts/AppLayout/StatusPageBanner.utils.test.ts
new file mode 100644
index 00000000000..5b2618d7739
--- /dev/null
+++ b/apps/studio/components/layouts/AppLayout/StatusPageBanner.utils.test.ts
@@ -0,0 +1,225 @@
+import { describe, expect, it } from 'vitest'
+
+import { shouldShowBanner } from './StatusPageBanner.utils'
+
+const noCache = { cache: null } as const
+const noRestrictions = {
+  cache: { affected_regions: null, affects_project_creation: false },
+}
+const affectsCreation = {
+  cache: { affected_regions: null, affects_project_creation: true },
+}
+const usEast1Only = {
+  cache: { affected_regions: ['us-east-1'], affects_project_creation: false },
+}
+const usEast1AndCreation = {
+  cache: { affected_regions: ['us-east-1'], affects_project_creation: true },
+}
+
+describe('shouldShowBanner', () => {
+  describe('no incidents', () => {
+    it('does not show when there are no incidents', () => {
+      expect(
+        shouldShowBanner({ incidents: [], hasProjects: true, userRegions: new Set(['us-east-1']) })
+      ).toBe(false)
+    })
+  })
+
+  describe('user has no projects', () => {
+    it('does not show when cache is absent', () => {
+      expect(
+        shouldShowBanner({ incidents: [noCache], hasProjects: false, userRegions: new Set() })
+      ).toBe(false)
+    })
+
+    it('does not show when affects_project_creation is false', () => {
+      expect(
+        shouldShowBanner({
+          incidents: [noRestrictions],
+          hasProjects: false,
+          userRegions: new Set(),
+        })
+      ).toBe(false)
+    })
+
+    it('shows when affects_project_creation is true and no region restriction', () => {
+      expect(
+        shouldShowBanner({
+          incidents: [affectsCreation],
+          hasProjects: false,
+          userRegions: new Set(),
+        })
+      ).toBe(true)
+    })
+
+    it('shows when affects_project_creation is true even with a region restriction', () => {
+      expect(
+        shouldShowBanner({
+          incidents: [usEast1AndCreation],
+          hasProjects: false,
+          userRegions: new Set(),
+        })
+      ).toBe(true)
+    })
+  })
+
+  describe('user has projects, no region restriction', () => {
+    it('shows when cache is absent', () => {
+      expect(
+        shouldShowBanner({
+          incidents: [noCache],
+          hasProjects: true,
+          userRegions: new Set(['us-east-1']),
+        })
+      ).toBe(true)
+    })
+
+    it('shows when affected_regions is null', () => {
+      expect(
+        shouldShowBanner({
+          incidents: [noRestrictions],
+          hasProjects: true,
+          userRegions: new Set(['us-east-1']),
+        })
+      ).toBe(true)
+    })
+
+    it('shows when affected_regions is an empty array', () => {
+      expect(
+        shouldShowBanner({
+          incidents: [{ cache: { affected_regions: [], affects_project_creation: false } }],
+          hasProjects: true,
+          userRegions: new Set(['us-east-1']),
+        })
+      ).toBe(true)
+    })
+  })
+
+  describe('user has projects, with region restriction', () => {
+    it('shows when user has a primary database in an affected region', () => {
+      expect(
+        shouldShowBanner({
+          incidents: [usEast1Only],
+          hasProjects: true,
+          userRegions: new Set(['us-east-1']),
+        })
+      ).toBe(true)
+    })
+
+    it('shows when user has a read replica in an affected region', () => {
+      expect(
+        shouldShowBanner({
+          incidents: [
+            { cache: { affected_regions: ['eu-west-1'], affects_project_creation: false } },
+          ],
+          hasProjects: true,
+          userRegions: new Set(['us-east-1', 'eu-west-1']),
+        })
+      ).toBe(true)
+    })
+
+    it('shows when one of multiple affected regions matches', () => {
+      expect(
+        shouldShowBanner({
+          incidents: [
+            {
+              cache: {
+                affected_regions: ['us-east-1', 'ap-southeast-1'],
+                affects_project_creation: false,
+              },
+            },
+          ],
+          hasProjects: true,
+          userRegions: new Set(['ap-southeast-1']),
+        })
+      ).toBe(true)
+    })
+
+    it('does not show when user has no databases in any affected region', () => {
+      expect(
+        shouldShowBanner({
+          incidents: [usEast1Only],
+          hasProjects: true,
+          userRegions: new Set(['eu-west-1', 'ap-southeast-1']),
+        })
+      ).toBe(false)
+    })
+
+    it('does not show when user has projects but no databases in affected region, even with affects_project_creation', () => {
+      expect(
+        shouldShowBanner({
+          incidents: [usEast1AndCreation],
+          hasProjects: true,
+          userRegions: new Set(['eu-west-1']),
+        })
+      ).toBe(false)
+    })
+  })
+
+  describe('multiple incidents', () => {
+    it('shows when at least one incident matches even if others do not', () => {
+      expect(
+        shouldShowBanner({
+          incidents: [usEast1Only, noRestrictions],
+          hasProjects: true,
+          userRegions: new Set(['eu-west-1']),
+        })
+      ).toBe(true)
+    })
+
+    it('does not show when no incident matches', () => {
+      expect(
+        shouldShowBanner({
+          incidents: [usEast1Only, usEast1AndCreation],
+          hasProjects: true,
+          userRegions: new Set(['eu-west-1']),
+        })
+      ).toBe(false)
+    })
+
+    it('shows when any incident matches for a no-project user via affects_project_creation', () => {
+      expect(
+        shouldShowBanner({
+          incidents: [usEast1Only, affectsCreation],
+          hasProjects: false,
+          userRegions: new Set(),
+        })
+      ).toBe(true)
+    })
+  })
+
+  describe('hasUnknownRegions', () => {
+    it('shows when regions are unknown and incident has a region restriction', () => {
+      expect(
+        shouldShowBanner({
+          incidents: [usEast1Only],
+          hasProjects: true,
+          userRegions: new Set(),
+          hasUnknownRegions: true,
+        })
+      ).toBe(true)
+    })
+
+    it('still applies no-projects check even when regions are unknown', () => {
+      expect(
+        shouldShowBanner({
+          incidents: [usEast1Only],
+          hasProjects: false,
+          userRegions: new Set(),
+          hasUnknownRegions: true,
+        })
+      ).toBe(false)
+    })
+
+    it('still shows for affects_project_creation with no projects even when regions are unknown', () => {
+      expect(
+        shouldShowBanner({
+          incidents: [usEast1AndCreation],
+          hasProjects: false,
+          userRegions: new Set(),
+          hasUnknownRegions: true,
+        })
+      ).toBe(true)
+    })
+  })
+})
diff --git a/apps/studio/components/layouts/AppLayout/StatusPageBanner.utils.ts b/apps/studio/components/layouts/AppLayout/StatusPageBanner.utils.ts
new file mode 100644
index 00000000000..d8fcf5f8f7b
--- /dev/null
+++ b/apps/studio/components/layouts/AppLayout/StatusPageBanner.utils.ts
@@ -0,0 +1,44 @@
+import type { IncidentCache } from 'lib/api/incident-status'
+
+type BannerIncident = { cache?: IncidentCache | null }
+
+/**
+ * Determines whether the incident status banner should be shown to a given user,
+ * given all active incidents and the user's project state.
+ *
+ * Returns true if any incident matches the user's context.
+ *
+ * @param incidents - Active incidents from the incident-status endpoint
+ * @param hasProjects - Whether the user has any projects at all
+ * @param userRegions - Deduplicated set of regions of all databases (primary and read replicas) owned by the user
+ * @param hasUnknownRegions - True when region data is incomplete (org has >100 projects).
+ *   When true, the region check is skipped and a match is assumed.
+ */
+export function shouldShowBanner({
+  incidents,
+  hasProjects,
+  userRegions,
+  hasUnknownRegions = false,
+}: {
+  incidents: Array<BannerIncident>
+  hasProjects: boolean
+  userRegions: Set<string>
+  hasUnknownRegions?: boolean
+}): boolean {
+  return incidents.some((incident) => {
+    const affectedRegions = incident.cache?.affected_regions ?? []
+    const affectsProjectCreation = incident.cache?.affects_project_creation ?? false
+
+    // Users with no projects only see the banner if the incident affects project creation
+    if (!hasProjects) return affectsProjectCreation
+
+    // User has projects: if no region restriction, always show
+    if (affectedRegions.length === 0) return true
+
+    // Region data is incomplete — assume the user has a database in an affected region
+    if (hasUnknownRegions) return true
+
+    // Region restriction: only show if the user has a database in an affected region
+    return affectedRegions.some((region) => userRegions.has(region))
+  })
+}
diff --git a/apps/studio/components/layouts/AppLayout/useStatusPageBannerVisibility.ts b/apps/studio/components/layouts/AppLayout/useStatusPageBannerVisibility.ts
new file mode 100644
index 00000000000..8975cba3b9a
--- /dev/null
+++ b/apps/studio/components/layouts/AppLayout/useStatusPageBannerVisibility.ts
@@ -0,0 +1,61 @@
+import { useQueries } from '@tanstack/react-query'
+import { useFlag } from 'common'
+
+import { shouldShowBanner } from './StatusPageBanner.utils'
+import { useOrganizationsQuery } from '@/data/organizations/organizations-query'
+import { useIncidentStatusQuery } from '@/data/platform/incident-status-query'
+import { projectKeys } from '@/data/projects/keys'
+import {
+  getOrganizationProjects,
+  type OrgProject,
+} from '@/data/projects/org-projects-infinite-query'
+
+export type StatusPageBannerData = { title: string }
+
+export function useStatusPageBannerVisibility(): StatusPageBannerData | null {
+  const showIncidentBannerOverride =
+    useFlag('ongoingIncident') || process.env.NEXT_PUBLIC_ONGOING_INCIDENT === 'true'
+
+  const { data: allStatusPageEvents } = useIncidentStatusQuery()
+  const { incidents = [] } = allStatusPageEvents ?? {}
+
+  const hasActiveIncidents = incidents.length > 0
+
+  const { data: organizations } = useOrganizationsQuery({
+    enabled: !showIncidentBannerOverride && hasActiveIncidents,
+  })
+
+  const orgProjectsQueries = useQueries({
+    queries: (organizations ?? []).map((org) => ({
+      queryKey: projectKeys.bannerProjectsByOrg(org.slug),
+      queryFn: () => getOrganizationProjects({ slug: org.slug, limit: 100 }),
+      staleTime: 5 * 60 * 1000,
+      enabled: !showIncidentBannerOverride && hasActiveIncidents,
+    })),
+  })
+
+  const isProjectsFetched =
+    organizations !== undefined &&
+    (organizations.length === 0 || orgProjectsQueries.every((q) => q.isFetched))
+
+  const allProjects = orgProjectsQueries.flatMap((q) => q.data?.projects ?? [])
+  const hasProjects = allProjects.length > 0
+  const userRegions = new Set(
+    allProjects.flatMap((project: OrgProject) => project.databases.map((db) => db.region))
+  )
+  const hasUnknownRegions = orgProjectsQueries.some(
+    (q) => q.isError || (q.data !== undefined && q.data.pagination.count > q.data.projects.length)
+  )
+
+  if (showIncidentBannerOverride) return { title: 'We are investigating a technical issue' }
+
+  if (!hasActiveIncidents || !isProjectsFetched) return null
+
+  if (!shouldShowBanner({ incidents, hasProjects, userRegions, hasUnknownRegions })) return null
+
+  return {
+    title: hasProjects
+      ? 'We are investigating a technical issue'
+      : 'Project creation may be impacted in some regions',
+  }
+}
diff --git a/apps/studio/data/projects/keys.ts b/apps/studio/data/projects/keys.ts
index 0684b180478..810e41baf17 100644
--- a/apps/studio/data/projects/keys.ts
+++ b/apps/studio/data/projects/keys.ts
@@ -36,4 +36,7 @@ export const projectKeys = {
     ['projects', projectRef, 'clone-backups'] as const,
   listCloneStatus: (projectRef: string | undefined) =>
     ['projects', projectRef, 'clone-status'] as const,
+
+  // Banner-specific: first-page snapshot used by the status page banner hook
+  bannerProjectsByOrg: (slug: string) => ['banner', 'org-projects', slug] as const,
 }
diff --git a/apps/studio/data/projects/org-projects-infinite-query.ts b/apps/studio/data/projects/org-projects-infinite-query.ts
index d13b328d006..02825fb2738 100644
--- a/apps/studio/data/projects/org-projects-infinite-query.ts
+++ b/apps/studio/data/projects/org-projects-infinite-query.ts
@@ -24,7 +24,7 @@ interface GetOrgProjectsInfiniteVariables {
 export type OrgProjectsResponse = components['schemas']['OrganizationProjectsResponse']
 export type OrgProject = OrgProjectsResponse['projects'][number]
 
-async function getOrganizationProjects(
+export async function getOrganizationProjects(
   {
     slug,
     limit = DEFAULT_LIMIT,
diff --git a/apps/studio/lib/api/incident-status.ts b/apps/studio/lib/api/incident-status.ts
index b552e27ead4..7b19ee53c40 100644
--- a/apps/studio/lib/api/incident-status.ts
+++ b/apps/studio/lib/api/incident-status.ts
@@ -3,12 +3,25 @@ import z from 'zod'
 import { IS_PLATFORM } from 'common'
 import { InternalServerError } from 'lib/api/apiHelpers'
 
+export type IncidentCache = {
+  affected_regions: Array<string> | null
+  affects_project_creation: boolean
+}
+
+export type IncidentMetadata = {
+  dashboard_metadata?: {
+    show_banner?: boolean
+  }
+}
+
 export type IncidentInfo = {
   id: string
   name: string
   status: string
   impact: string
   active_since: string
+  metadata: IncidentMetadata
+  cache?: IncidentCache | null
 }
 
 const STATUSPAGE_API_URL = 'https://api.statuspage.io/v1'
@@ -27,6 +40,16 @@ const StatusPageIncidentsSchema = z.array(
     created_at: z.string(),
     scheduled_for: z.string().nullable(),
     impact: z.string(),
+    metadata: z
+      .object({
+        dashboard_metadata: z
+          .object({
+            show_banner: z.boolean().optional(),
+          })
+          .optional(),
+      })
+      .optional()
+      .default({}),
   })
 )
 
@@ -114,5 +137,6 @@ export async function getActiveIncidents(): Promise<IncidentInfo[]> {
     status: incident.status,
     impact: incident.impact,
     active_since: incident.scheduled_for ?? incident.created_at,
+    metadata: incident.metadata,
   }))
 }
diff --git a/apps/studio/lib/api/supabase-admin.ts b/apps/studio/lib/api/supabase-admin.ts
new file mode 100644
index 00000000000..e6a19f7008b
--- /dev/null
+++ b/apps/studio/lib/api/supabase-admin.ts
@@ -0,0 +1,9 @@
+import { createClient } from '@supabase/supabase-js'
+
+/**
+ * Creates a Supabase client using the secret key.
+ * For use in server-side API routes only.
+ */
+export function createAdminClient() {
+  return createClient(process.env.NEXT_PUBLIC_SUPABASE_URL!, process.env.LIVE_SUPABASE_SECRET_KEY!)
+}
diff --git a/apps/studio/pages/api/incident-status.ts b/apps/studio/pages/api/incident-status.ts
index e925a92e6a3..c075bbdd38a 100644
--- a/apps/studio/pages/api/incident-status.ts
+++ b/apps/studio/pages/api/incident-status.ts
@@ -1,8 +1,13 @@
+import { IS_PLATFORM } from 'common'
 import { NextApiRequest, NextApiResponse } from 'next'
 
-import { IS_PLATFORM } from 'common'
-import { InternalServerError } from 'lib/api/apiHelpers'
-import { getActiveIncidents, type IncidentInfo } from 'lib/api/incident-status'
+import { InternalServerError } from '@/lib/api/apiHelpers'
+import {
+  getActiveIncidents,
+  type IncidentCache,
+  type IncidentInfo,
+} from '@/lib/api/incident-status'
+import { createAdminClient } from '@/lib/api/supabase-admin'
 
 /**
  * Cache on browser for 5 minutes
@@ -11,11 +16,41 @@ import { getActiveIncidents, type IncidentInfo } from 'lib/api/incident-status'
  */
 const CACHE_CONTROL_SETTINGS = 'public, max-age=300, s-maxage=300, stale-while-revalidate=60'
 
+async function fetchIncidentCache(incidentIds: Array<string>): Promise<Map<string, IncidentCache>> {
+  const cacheMap = new Map<string, IncidentCache>()
+
+  if (incidentIds.length === 0) return cacheMap
+
+  const supabase = createAdminClient()
+
+  try {
+    const { data, error } = await supabase
+      .from('incident_status_cache')
+      .select('incident_id, affected_regions, affects_project_creation')
+      .in('incident_id', incidentIds)
+
+    if (error) {
+      console.error('Failed to fetch incident_status_cache: %O', error)
+      return cacheMap
+    }
+
+    for (const row of data ?? []) {
+      cacheMap.set(row.incident_id, {
+        affected_regions: row.affected_regions ?? null,
+        affects_project_creation: row.affects_project_creation,
+      })
+    }
+  } catch (error) {
+    console.error('Unexpected error fetching incident_status_cache: %O', error)
+  }
+
+  return cacheMap
+}
+
 // Default export needed by Next.js convention
-// eslint-disable-next-line no-restricted-exports
 export default async function handler(
   req: NextApiRequest,
-  res: NextApiResponse<IncidentInfo[] | { error: string }>
+  res: NextApiResponse<Array<IncidentInfo> | { error: string }>
 ) {
   if (!IS_PLATFORM) {
     return res.status(404).end()
@@ -34,11 +69,24 @@ export default async function handler(
   }
 
   try {
-    const incidents = await getActiveIncidents()
+    const allIncidents = await getActiveIncidents()
+
+    const bannerIncidents = allIncidents.filter(
+      (incident) =>
+        incident.impact !== 'maintenance' &&
+        incident.metadata?.dashboard_metadata?.show_banner === true
+    )
+
+    const cacheMap = await fetchIncidentCache(bannerIncidents.map((i) => i.id))
+
+    const enrichedIncidents = bannerIncidents.map((incident) => ({
+      ...incident,
+      cache: cacheMap.get(incident.id) ?? null,
+    }))
 
     res.setHeader('Cache-Control', CACHE_CONTROL_SETTINGS)
 
-    return res.status(200).json(incidents)
+    return res.status(200).json(enrichedIncidents)
   } catch (error) {
     if (error instanceof InternalServerError) {
       console.error('Failed to fetch active StatusPage incidents: %O', {
diff --git a/turbo.json b/turbo.json
index c8026da1181..789b14f1c59 100644
--- a/turbo.json
+++ b/turbo.json
@@ -108,7 +108,8 @@
         "AI_NORMAL_MODEL",
         "SUPPORT_SUPABASE_SECRET_KEY",
         "STATUSPAGE_API_KEY",
-        "STATUSPAGE_PAGE_ID"
+        "STATUSPAGE_PAGE_ID",
+		"LIVE_SUPABASE_SECRET_KEY"
       ],
       "passThroughEnv": [
         "CURRENT_CLI_VERSION",